DGDraft Genius
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Live Draft
Board & Tiers
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Your Team

Starting lineup fills automatically as you log your picks. Dashed gold = still unfilled.

Your position in the draft order

Recommended Picks

Ranked by value over replacement for your lineup, adjusted for how likely each player is to survive to your next pick, positional runs, roster needs, and market mispricing.

Auto-Sync

Paste your Sleeper draft link (or its ID) and picks log themselves. Works for real drafts and mocks. Manual logging below stays available either way.

Log a Pick

Enter every pick as it happens — yours and your opponents'.

★PlayerPosVBDADPStatus
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.

Cost of Waiting

Best available now versus what you can realistically expect at this position when you're next on the clock. Big number = take it now; small number = safe to wait.

Handcuffs & Stacks

Backups to running backs you already own, and quarterback/pass-catcher pairings from your roster.

Watchlist

Players you've starred. Shows survival odds to your next pick so you know who to grab now versus who can wait.

Draft Log

Click × to remove a mis-logged pick from anywhere in the order.

League Rosters

Every team's picks so far. The two or three teams drafting between you and your next pick are the ones whose needs actually decide whether your target survives.

Board & Tiers

Tiers are cut where value drops off a cliff, so you can see when it's safe to wait and when it isn't. Edge compares expert rank to market ADP — green means the market is letting him fall, red means you'd be paying up.

★#PlayerPos TmBye Floor Proj Ceil VBD Opp/G Role Δ ADPEdge Split Tier
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.

Strategy Simulator

Runs thousands of full snake drafts from your slot. Opponents draft to market ADP with realistic noise; you draft by each strategy's rules. Because value (expert projections) and price (ADP) are separate inputs, strategies can actually beat the market here rather than just tracking it. Rosters respect real position limits, so no team ends up with six quarterbacks.

League Settings

Everything downstream — replacement levels, VBD, roster slots, recommendations — recalculates instantly when you change these.

Live Injury Feed

Pulled from Sleeper's public API — free, no account, built for outside apps, so it stands a real chance of working directly in your browser (unlike the ADP scrape, which sites block). Injury designations and depth-chart positions refresh automatically; your manual flags always override the feed.

Recommendation Tuning

These control how much each factor sways the recommended picks. Be clear on what they are: hand-chosen starting values, not coefficients fitted to historical draft results. Nothing here has been backtested against real outcomes — if your instincts differ from mine, your instincts are as valid as these defaults. Adjust freely.

Data Sources

Every rank, ADP and projection on your board comes live from FantasyPros half-PPR, with injuries from Sleeper and playoff-week matchups from ESPN. The baked snapshot below is the fallback — used offline, and as the safety net if a live source is unreachable mid-draft.

How the numbers work

Projections blend two independent estimates. The first comes from last season's actual usage — targets and carries per game from Pro Football Reference's 2025 data — converted to points using league-average efficiency at that position, regressed toward the positional mean (harder for small samples), then adjusted by an age curve and expected games played. Volume is used rather than points because opportunity is far stickier year over year than efficiency. The second is the expert consensus curve, which captures everything last season can't: team changes, rookies, depth-chart moves, coaching changes.

Crucially, last season's usage is re-based onto this season's roster before it's used. Raw 2025 volume is misleading the moment a teammate leaves or arrives — Jahmyr Gibbs split carries with David Montgomery last year, and Montgomery is now in Houston. So for every team the app pools last season's carry and target volume, works out who is actually competing for it in 2026, and reallocates: departures free volume up, arrivals dilute it. Claims are weighted by both prior role and the market's expectation of this year's role, converted to implied opportunity so a receiver's higher points-per-touch doesn't let him outbid a running back for carries. That shows as ROLE ↑ / ROLE ↓ and the Role Δ column. Detroit is instructive: Montgomery's departure helps Gibbs, but the Lions signed Isiah Pacheco, so the gain is small rather than the windfall it looks like at first glance.

The two are weighted by how much the usage signal deserves trust — a full 17-game season of heavy volume earns the most, a 4-game sample earns little, and a rookie with no NFL history gets none at all and falls back entirely on expert consensus. Where the two disagree sharply, that shows as a USAGE ↑/↓ flag; it's a genuinely independent third opinion, since it comes from neither ADP nor the expert boards.

Floor / Proj / Ceil replace the old single number. Width comes from measurable uncertainty: games missed, small samples, age, how far the two projection methods disagree, and how split the expert sources are. The recommendation engine uses this positionally — in rounds 1–2 players are valued nearer their floor, because an early bust sinks a season; from round 11 on they're valued nearer their ceiling, because the downside there is already replacement level.

Still honest about the limits: this is a transparent statistical model, not a trained one. Nothing here was fitted to historical outcomes or backtested — the age curves, regression strengths and blend weights are reasoned choices. The roster-context model also only knows about players it has 2025 data for: a rookie or a free agent outside the top 225 who wins a job will not appear in the competition pool, so treat unsettled camp battles as something to override manually. It's a real improvement on the pure rank curve it replaces, because actual measured usage now enters the calculation, but it isn't a machine-learned forecast.

Draft Genius — Quick Guide

Everything the app does and what each term means. Skim the setup section before your draft; the rest is reference.

Before you draft

Five things in League Settings. Takes two minutes.

  1. League shape — teams, bench, IR slots, and how many QB/RB/WR/TE/FLEX/DEF/K you start. This drives every calculation in the app, so set it first.
  2. Your draft slot — set on the Live Draft tab, top of "Your Team", with the − / + buttons.
  3. Projection blend — leave on auto unless you have a reason. Auto lets each player use his own best-trusted mix of expert consensus and opportunity model.
  4. Reach tolerance — 0 means strict ADP discipline, 100 means pure conviction. 50 is a sensible middle.
  5. Punt DEF / Punt K — tick either if you plan to skip that position entirely and stream from waivers in week 1. Frees the pick for real value.

During the draft

Log every pick — yours and your opponents'. The app needs the full board to reason about who survives to your next turn.

Late IR stash

If you've ticked Punt DEF or Punt K, the final round targets high-upside players listed as PUP or IR. They occupy an IR slot rather than a bench spot, so the pick is nearly free — park him there and claim another player off waivers straight after the draft. He's judged on his ceiling when he returns, not on what he scores now. Without a punt this is switched off, because that final pick is needed for your kicker or defense.

Auto-sync (Sleeper)

If your draft is on Sleeper, paste the draft link into Auto-Sync and every pick logs itself — yours and everyone else's. Works for real drafts and mocks. It checks every 15 seconds, slows to 30 when nothing is happening, pauses while the tab is in the background, and stops when the draft ends.

While connected, Sleeper is the source of truth: if a pick is corrected or undone there, it corrects here too. Manual logging still works if you'd rather not connect, or as a backup. If a pick can't be matched to a player on your board the status line says so rather than guessing.

Logging picks fast

Type in the search box. It forgives punctuation and suffixes — amonra and ja marr both work. Check the "Enter logs…" line above the box to confirm who you're about to take, then press Enter. Or tap Draft on any recommendation card.

Keyboard shortcuts

/ jump to search · Enter log the top match · Ctrl+Z undo

The Plan panel

A running summary above your recommendations:

  • Best path — which strategy the simulator currently favours, based on the roster you've actually built. Says "no clear winner" when it can't separate the top two, and steers nothing in that case.
  • Act now — a position where waiting will genuinely cost you value.
  • Safe to wait — the drop-off is small; no rush.
  • Thin but even — supply is short league-wide, but the remaining players are interchangeable. Grab one late rather than early.
  • Squeeze — a position running out across the whole league and costly to wait on.
  • Plan changed — your recommended strategy shifted mid-draft, and what you drafted in between.

After the draft

Once your roster is full a Draft Report appears: your grade, how you compare to simulated drafts from your slot, best values, biggest reaches, and what to fix on waivers.

What the terms mean

VBD (value over replacement)
How many points a player scores above the last player at his position you'd realistically roster. It's why a RB1 and a QB1 aren't comparable on raw points — quarterbacks all score a lot, so being good at QB is worth less than being good at RB.
Tier
A group of players of similar value, cut where the value genuinely drops off. Tiers answer "can I wait?" — if five players remain in a tier, you can afford to take another position first.
Replacement level
The projection of the last player at a position who'd actually get drafted in your league. Everything above that is what a player is really worth to you.
ADP (average draft position)
Where the market is taking a player. Draft Genius uses it to estimate whether someone will survive to your next pick.
ECR (expert consensus rank)
Where the expert panel ranks a player, independent of where the market drafts him.
Edge
The gap between ECR and ADP. Green means the market is letting him fall past where experts rank him; red means you'd be paying above his expert rank.
Survival %
The chance a player is still available at your next pick, given ADP, how much the market disagrees about him, and what the teams ahead of you still need.
Floor / Proj / Ceil
The realistic low, expected, and high outcomes. Early rounds value players nearer their floor — an early bust sinks a season. From round 11 they're valued nearer their ceiling, because the downside is already replacement level.
USAGE ↑ / USAGE ↓
Last season's actual touches and targets project meaningfully higher (↑) or lower (↓) than the expert boards. An independent third opinion, since it comes from neither ADP nor expert ranks.
ROLE ↑ / ROLE ↓
Roster turnover changed his opportunity. ↑ means departures cleared touches for him; ↓ means new competition arrived.
Injury tags
A • means the tag came from the live feed. Q is questionable, OUT is week-to-week, IR is long-term but IR-slot eligible (a legitimate late stash), and suspensions are a known fixed absence that costs a bench spot. None are removed from the board — each is priced differently.
Handcuff
The backup to a running back you already own. Worth more to you than to anyone else, because he's insurance on points you've already paid for.
Stack
A quarterback and one of his own pass-catchers. Raises your ceiling in the same week, which matters in a one-week playoff matchup.
Cost of Waiting
Best available now versus what you can realistically expect at that position when you're next on the clock. Big number means take it now; small number means safe to wait.

Power user settings

Seven sliders in League Settings control how the recommendation score is built. Defaults are tuned to work out of the box — use these only if a recommendation feels off. Reset to defaults undoes all seven.

Chase scarcity 0.30
How hard to push toward players who might not survive to your next pick. Raise it if you keep losing targets you waited on; lower it if you feel pressured into reaches.
React to runs 0.12
How much a positional run bumps that position up. Raise it where runs snowball; lower it to ignore the noise.
Fill needs 0.14
Bonus for filling a starting slot you don't have yet. Raise it to complete a lineup faster; lower it to chase pure value.
Avoid redundancy 0.22
Penalty for adding to a position you've already filled. Raise it for balance; lower it if you like stacking a position.
Trust market edge 0.55
Weight on the ECR-vs-ADP gap. The heaviest default. Raise it to lean into market mispricing; lower it if you trust projections more than market sentiment.
Last-in-tier bonus 0.10
Extra push for the last good player before a tier break. Raise it if you hate missing cliffs; lower it if it's causing reaches.
Bye-stack penalty 0.05
Penalty for starters sharing a bye week. Raise it if byes have burned you; lower it if you stream anyway.

How to use them: move one slider at a time and watch the Recommended Picks reorder. Steps of 0.05–0.10 are enough to see a difference without overcorrecting.